Either EG or Liquid will advance to top 4, the other one will go to lower bracket.
Either LGD or LFY will advance to top 4, the other one will go to lower bracket.
Just to give some statistical information, if someone cares:
For the simple case that every team has a 50 % chance to win against any other team (which of course is not the case, but it shows the point as it isn't too far off either) the chance that the winner of the tournament initially started in the upper bracket is 120/128 which is a 93.75 % chance. OG is in the lower bracket, the chance that they win the tournament under the same assumptions is 1/128 which is 0.78125 %. The chance for any of the upper bracket teams is 93.75 % /8 -> 11.71875 %. Given that the chance of an upper bracket team winning against a lower bracket team should actually be higher than 50 % in reality, the probability of the team winning TI7 should be even a bit higher than the 11.71875 %.
I'm actually an OG fan but i would't bet my money on them winning the tournament as the odds are really against them, as well as any other lower bracket team, however I still hope they make it.
Oh and I just looked up how many TI winners started upper bracket.. and actually all 6 started upper bracket.
school & university ;) and I'm not a kid btw - I just wanted to point out how unlikely it is that someone starting from lower bracket wins TI7 as it took me by surprise when I did the math.
Shit that is daunting. It seems way off when you think there's only 16 teams but lower bracket is 7 rounds. 2^7 is 128 so yup that's the odds of winning starting in lower bracket.
But less empirically the teams playing best right now make the upper bracket anyway so the look test just says they are more likely to win. Before the tournament I felt like China was due to win again but I totally messed up the pick going with ig when it seems like one of the lgd teams will do it. I do think liquid and e.g. Face off in second round upper and the loser will make lower bracket finals. Lgdfy to win, e.g. And liquid take 2nd and 3rd in some order.
I love your reply @Razhuma. This forum needs more of the likes of you.
Think of it this way, for OG to win, they're going to have to win three series in a row most likely against either tnc/lfy or lgd/vp (most likely cus igv or dc could knock them off). The you get through that and you're eventually trying to win three more series against whoever is left in that top part of upper bracket- liquid, newbee, ig, eg. That's why it's so unlikely, even if they play outstanding no team really wins 6 series in a row vs top competition like that.
The glimmer of hope is they didn't do that awful in the group stage, they only lost one series to vp, but they did drop a game to execration which shouldn't have happened.
Interesting note from group stage, only teams to not drop a series were EG, Liquid, and LFY.
LGD, VP, OG, newbee, IG, TNC each dropped one.
1/16 chance to win compared to the others is just fair. They're in the loser bracket after all, they already proved they are nowhere near the best. They have a chance to prove otherwise.
Nowhere near the best after winning 4 Majors? ^^'
Had they won one more game, things would be completely different - but anyway, OG brought this on themselves by losing to Execration.
OG is definitely one of the best teams dude, they just dropped a couple games they shouldn't have, it happens, people have off days. I'm certain they would best TNC and IG in a series, and I don't give EG or liquid more than like a 60/40 odds against them. Ana is really, really good. Until this tournament miracle has felt overrates on liquid to me while Ana goes overlooked. Fly and notail maybe don't have like the ceiling of other players but they're incredibly consistent, you won't ever see them throw or screw up badly. They remind me of fear in that way, while arteezy and sumail get all the glory fear was always in the background just doing work. And jerax is one of the best supports in the game.
If they were in the top bracket I would favor them to make final 3 but it's just too hard in the lower.
And yes, it is fair as you said. They didn't perform like they should have in group stage. It'll be pretty awesome if they can go on a run but I didn't pick it in my predictions.
after zai's fuckups this game, the only way to come back is having universe silver edge abaddon, silence him and kill him under the effects!!
and i just dont get this crit son of a bitch. Who the fuck really, really fucking thinks timber is a great carry? :/
Benao ur a 4k trenchlord who buys battlefury on pa and necronomicon on enigma I don't think anyone expects ur dumbass to understand dota fucking 2
R u seriously saying uve never heard of safelane timbersaw? Matumbaman has done it, iceiceice has done it, many times. He is a farm dependent hero, who needs a good laning phase, what's wrong with him safelane.
PEOPLE DO SHIT
SHIT PLAYERS WIN GAMES
SHIT TEAMS WIN GAMES
DOESN'T MEAN IT'S NOT SHIT
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Who will be (T)he (N)ext (C)hampion??guess whos my bet..lmao