U are on the verge of HS and VHS games. VHS starts from >3.7 k. Your hidden mmr is probably almost 3.7 k.
Now - whether the game is HS or VHS is determined by average hidden mmr of 5 players in your team, not your single one. So apparently u can lose 3 in a row but have a game with 4 3.8 k guys, and average hidden mmr will be >3.7 k so your game will be VHS.
just remember that average 3.7 k ranked game =/= 3.7 k normal game.
EDIT: Its my opinion, but i think no one knows how really this system works.
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@lex
Good to hear from u my hidden mmr is near 3.7k. I always consider the worst case where my mmr is >3.2k :D
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Idk how exactly the MM system works but there are some strange VHS games in my dotabuff after bad loses :
http://www.dotabuff.com/players/297025914/matches
First VHS game is with rikkimaru after 3 loses.
In the rikkimaru game I was playing as roamer,not much farm or HD : http://www.dotabuff.com/matches/2032327191
I lost the next VHS game as furion sounds fair based on picks but after that I came back to HS games.
Next strange VHS game is after a bad lose with venommacner. I also lost the next 2 matches and again I am in VHS !
I also need to mentioned that in all of my VHS games players were solo not party.
How exactly is that possible?